23 July 2009

Don't forget Iran...

About a month ago, Greyhawk posted the following at The Mudville Gazette:

Dear Iran
Don't be fooled - you have about 48 hours until Brittney Spears does something to make us forget you.
Indeed, tabloid news has certainly grabbed our attention as of late with the deaths of Michael Jackson and Farrah Fawcette, not to mention the usual celebrity hijinks such as pictures of bi-curious pop star Katy Perry naked in the bathtub eating pizza on Twitter. (I can only imagine who will come across this site looking for some combination of "bi-curious, Katy Perry, naked, pizza, and Twitter")

But even though the Iranian election has largely disappeared from the news, the resulting turmoil has exposed deep rifts in Iranian society, and I would suspect that we haven't seen the end of this. Robert Haddick reports at Small Wars Journal on the possibility of further political disruption:

Five weeks after Iran’s presidential elections it is now clear that Iran’s ruling elite has split into two factions. The question now is whether Iran’s security forces will split.

Former presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami have now publicly questioned the legitimacy of President Ahmadinejad’s reelection. In doing so, they have questioned the legitimacy of Supreme Ruler Khamenei’s authority (see NYT, Economist). This is a dramatic development and almost guarantees a deep political crisis inside Iran.

The timing and manner of Rafsanjani and Khatami’s falling-out is especially notable. Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) had suppressed street protests, thus removing the pressure of a visible short-term crisis in the country. But in spite of that breathing space and after having several weeks to consider their options, Rafsanjani and Khatami still made the fateful decision to publicly oppose the Supreme Ruler and the power of the IRGC. Being experienced insiders, they would only opt for this course if they have high confidence in their odds. And they must also know that other dictum about palace revolts: “If you strike at the king, you must strike to kill.” A compromise political settlement with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad would not likely be a stable outcome.

Interesting developments, particularly as Iran has fallen off of the radar as far as legitimate news is concerned.

1 comment:

an average patriot said...

Sarah Sofia Ganborg sent me here. I have been going over your posts and like what I see so I am going to link to you.

I have an Iranian friend whose family is still there. She says it will take time but just keep watching.

The movement will not die, I am waiting for Sistani to get involved one way or the other. I just saw another warning from the hard liners on leaving Khamenei alone. This is barely beginning.